Bonus Post: Is the 2026 World Cup Going to Be a Disaster?

Billions will be watching. Let’s hope they’re watching the game.

Hey y’all - welcome to this month’s bonus post for paid subscribers! As always, these pieces are a little looser and more free-range than the usual fare: less structured argument, more gut-check and mild panic typed out during nap time. The first half is free, but the second is behind the paywall. Think of it like sitting next to me at a bar while I spiral about some of my favorite things: politics, soccer, and whether or not I can use my work account to expense a World Cup ticket. (Per our HR team, I cannot.)

If you’re reading this as a free subscriber and want full access to posts like this - and the entire archive - you can upgrade for as little as a dollar a month. It helps keep this thing going, and it keeps me honest. Now, with that shameless self-plug out of the way, let’s talk about the possibility of America setting a dumpster fire on soccer’s biggest stage.

It might feel like it’s a long way off, but the 2026 World Cup is just a year away. And for the first time since 1994, it’s being hosted here - well, here-ish - across the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It’s going to be a massive celebration of soccer (we’re hosting, we get to call it soccer, I will die on this hill). We’re talking packed stadiums, national pride, and...mass protests that might turn into riots?

Not exactly the fanfare you were picturing?

If you’ve been following the news at all lately, you’ve seen the coverage of civil unrest in Los Angeles and other cities across the country following recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids. What you may have missed are the comments from LA Mayor Karen Bass saying the protests are already impacting the city’s ability to prepare for hosting World Cup matches. It’s a relatively small comment in the context - but it should be one big, flashing warning sign.

That’s because this hints at a much bigger concern: what happens when the most watched event on Earth meets a deeply divided America already teetering on unrest? Could a rejuvenated protest movement tip over into large-scale violence on the world’s biggest stage?

Simply put, is the World Cup Going to be a disaster?

Why It Will Be a Disaster

It’s a Target Too Big to Resist
The World Cup isn’t just a tournament - it’s the tournament. Billions of people tune in. Governments, brands, and celebrities show up. The entire world watches. That kind of attention is catnip for activists looking to spotlight their cause. And it doesn’t take much for peaceful protests to turn disruptive, even in politically stable countries. In the U.S., where tensions are already high and political theatrics are part of our DNA, the stage is practically begging to be used. If history is any guide, expect protestors to plan, and counter-protestor plans to follow. The bigger the platform, the more dramatic the performance.

The Resistance is Back with a Vengeance
The early months of President Trump’s second term were relatively calm protest-wise, but that was never going to last. Recent ICE enforcement actions have reignited the popular resistance movement on the left to its highest levels since the first Trump administration. The timing also matters: the 2026 World Cup will be hosted in the summer, exactly when American protest movements tend to surge. With students on break, many of the most active and organized protestors will have more time, fewer obligations, and be able to follow through on a long track record of showing up in force. From Vietnam to BLM, youth-led movements have always swelled in the summer. Now add the global spotlight of the World Cup, and the stage is set for protests to grow - and for the risk of escalation to grow with them.

Immigration is Still Going to be THE Issue
President Trump is going to keep betting big on immigration. It’s where he polls best, and he knows it. But that also makes it a flashpoint. As long as ICE operations continue with high visibility, and especially if National Guard troops are on the table for being federalized to tamp down unrest, resistance isn’t going anywhere. Cities hosting World Cup matches - many with large immigrant populations - are particularly likely to see clashes between immigration protestors and law enforcement. Immigration has always been an emotional issue, but this time, it’s happening with the eyes of the world watching - and people on both sides know it.

Election Season Brings Out the Worst
The Cup is going to take place just a few months before the 2026 midterm elections. That’s going to accelerate things. Campaigns will be in full swing. As we’ve seen over the last few days, Democrats will be quick to highlight any perceived abuses of power. President Trump and Republicans will be just as eager to frame any unrest as a sign of Democrats’ unwillingness to maintain law and order. No one wants to be seen as weak, and no one wants to miss an opportunity to score political points. The incentives to escalate - not de-escalate - are built into the calendar. It’s a perfect recipe for confrontation.

Why It Won’t Be a Disaster